I just closed all the remaining long positions of this hedging position opened at the beginning of August. Currently, apart from the newly bought Meme on BSC, I am basically in a cash position.
On October 10th, with this level of altcoin flash crash, if the market really self-corrects in a day or two and continues to rise, there will be no shortage of opportunities to get in. However, if there are any hidden risks or potential impacts that haven't surfaced yet, it will be hard to predict the direction. I don't expect to catch every opportunity, but at this point, defending a position at least won't go wrong.
This hedging position performed quite well throughout August. Starting in September, ETH's rise compared to other altcoins became less pronounced, so I made some adjustments. Later, as the overall market weakened, the decline of altcoins exceeded that of ETH, and the profits from the hedging position began to rise again, prompting me to gradually reduce my positions. In the end, I surprisingly closed my short position at a low price during the altcoin flash crash, and the remaining long positions benefited from a rebound, far exceeding expectations.
In several trades with significant secondary returns, I basically got the trend right, such as shorting a basket of altcoins at the beginning of the year, recent hedging, going long on XPL, and shorting WLFI, etc. To achieve substantial profits in the secondary market, one generally needs to take larger positions, which also increases risk exposure, so it's crucial to have a planned stop-loss strategy. The advantage is stronger liquidity, allowing for more capital to be accommodated.
On-chain, like recently when the market is good, I spend more time and energy monitoring the chain. Even during the relatively dry months, I would check the on-chain hotspots every morning upon waking up, not only because this is my area of expertise where I've achieved results, but also because on-chain data can reflect market trends and sentiment. For example, recently, if one had deeply engaged with the BSC chain from the start, they would notice that this time has sustainability. Even without trading dogs, simply going long on BNB has more logical support. The advantage of on-chain is that it allows for small investments to yield large profits, with opportunities to make over 1M without needing too much capital, while the downside is that it requires a significant investment of time and effort to gather information and analyze projects.
This is also why I chose to keep the Meme on BSC, as it is currently the biggest hotspot. Including the logic I wrote in my last tweet, if the market stabilizes later, I still believe that the ceiling for BNB Chain can be broken, and these coins have the best odds. Meanwhile, the larger spot and contract positions are in a cash position, allowing me to observe the market's subsequent trends.

At present, the long and short divergence is serious, I opened a hedging trade, long ETH, short a package of copycats, the position is about 1:1, and I will exchange ideas with you.
My logic is that ETH is the engine of this round of rise that began at the end of June, and the main driving force is that institutions follow the micro-strategy and purchase ETH through currency stock financing, and the other is the stablecoin narrative, which is the relevant core infrastructure and settlement layer.
Referring to the previous process of buying BTC with micro-strategies and driving prices all the way up, in the end, most altcoins are far from outperforming BTC. This part of the funds used by currency stocks and institutions to buy ETH is also unlikely to spill over to other altcoins.
According to CMC, only 20 of the top 200 tokens have risen more than ETH in the past 30 days, including Bonk, Zora, CFX, and ENA, which are obviously driven by positive events.
In terms of copycat selection, follow the logic of previous shorting, give priority to those with high market capitalization, non-leader, weak move, and low presence, and disperse short selling, set stop losses, and prevent single targets from exploding.
If the market continues to be bullish in the second half of the year, I believe there is a high probability that it will still be driven by ETH, and if it goes bearish, I don't think the copycats can be alone, and ETH at least has the purchasing power of institutions. It will lead to the failure of this hedging idea, either the altcoin season is really coming, most of the altcoins continue to outperform ETH, or ETH fluctuates or leads the decline, while other altcoins do not fall much, according to the experience of the past few months, I think the possibility is small.
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