Is Monad "overvalued" by the community?
the community bought the public sale on @coinbase at fdv ≈ $2.5B.
pre-market is reflecting fdv ≈ $3.5B.
→ profit +40% before tge, despite the general market being very bad.
@monad's position compared to other L1s on tge ↓
• Aptos: ≈ $9B
• Sui: ≈ $9.4B
• Plasma: ≈ $8.7B
• Berachain: ≈ $5.9B
• Story Protocol: ≈ $1.95B
if ranked by fdv, @monad is in the upper middle.
not too cheap, but not touching the overhype group either.
circulating supply is the variable that completely changes the picture.
→ @monad only opened circulation of 10.8B $MON out of a total of 100B
→ circulating rate ≈ 10.8% at tge
this puts Monad in the low float group, similar to many large L1s that have tge before:
• Aptos ≈ 13%
• Sui ≈ 5.2%
• Plasma ≈ 18%
• Berachain ≈ 5%
Monad is in a reasonable circulation zone.
not too high to cause selling pressure, but not too low to the point of "virtual fdv".
using pre-market price $0.035 to estimate:
→ mcap on the first day ≈ 10.8B × $0.035 ≈ $378M mcap
this number is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than large L1 groups like Aptos or Sui.
fdv ≈ $3.5B is big in the crash market?
objective assessment:
(1) compared to Aptos, Sui, Plasma: Monad's FDV is still much lower
(2) with a float of 10.8%: this is a reasonable structure
(3) with an mcap of about $378M: Monad is being placed in the "mid cap L1" zone instead of "mega cap L1"
(4) with negative sentiment: the fact that the pre-market still holds a FDV of $3.5B shows that the cash flow is still expecting Monad's technological performance
(5) public-sale is making a profit of about 40% despite the market decline → bid-side signal is still good
summary
fdv $3.5B looks not small at first glance, but with a float of only 10.8%, this valuation is in a reasonable range for a high-performance L1 preparing for mainnet.
mcap of actual trading on the first day is expected to be around $378M → much lower than the previously listed L1.
this opens up space for strong price movements depending on the cash flow on the TGE day.
if the ecosystem attracts devs, users and stable staking, the current fdv level can completely maintain or expand.
looking forward to @keoneHD and @monad team.
> the bigger the airdrop
> the higher the risk
keep safe for the $MON airdrop on Monad's mainnet day.
tomorrow you can get a lot of tokens from @monad or you can also lose everything with just one wrong click.
1) junk tokens, scam public-sale
the mainnet is about to launch and so are scam projects.
models you will encounter ↓
• fake tokens inflated by bots
• “pre-buy” to receive large allocations
• projects that create FOMO and then open low-quality public sales
• anonymous teams but draw “cool” roadmaps, answer as if they are real
→ you just received an airdrop, easy to FOMO. Just one wrong command, $MON evaporates immediately.
only follow projects mentioned by @monad ecosystem, have real developers, or are confirmed by a large community.
2) fake claim links, fake websites, dangerous sign-request popups
this is the fastest source of losing wallets.
common attack types ↓
• fake claim link from clone account
• dm bot invites claim earlier than official
• website interface 99% similar to Monad
• popup asking to sign “upgrade permission”
you sign your wallet on the scam link → lose all $MON.
note ↓
> only claim via the link published by Monad
> do not sign any request requiring high permissions
> do not connect main wallet to strange link
> test everything with secondary wallet first
3) junk NFT, fake collection, free mint trap
scam NFT projects are springing up like mushrooms.
common pitfalls ↓
• free mints require unusual fees
• fake collections are 90% similar to the original
• collections with crazy prices and no team
• require “unlock permission” before minting
should ↓
> prioritize free mints from reputable projects
> only mint on Magic Eden or reputable markets
> check the contract, creator, volume, real comments
in short
you focus on Monad for a long time.
don’t lose it just because of a link, a trash project or a hasty sign.
during this period ↓
• stay alert to all kinds of FOMO
• wait for an official announcement from @monad before taking action
• keep your wallet safe > earn a few more percent of profit
got full my $MON allocation 🔥
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